I thought, we made an agreement. We had it as well. I agreed, on 80/ 20. Then I, saw General Haftar. I thought o yes that's true. We had, some-thing 2 do with you, as well.
I thought of, the following, auf-lossung:
- Hide we're not not not seeing not not the, not not not, damage. Let's hide, we're not not seeing, not not, the not not Lib-ya, not not from not not be-4 not not the not not war.
- let's hide it'= not not not war.
- let' hides it'= not not peace.
- let's hide, the excisting Lib-ya, that we're not not seeing a not not second not not country.
- We're with, the three of us. I'm not wanting, the most power, I think, the audience, wants that. I'm not, seeing why Haftar = a party, in the conflict. I'd given him, the game, Stratego. I wizzed it, it'= quite expensive, 4 my 85 euros, per week. Any-way, I'm suggesting, a combination of power 70/ 15/15. 4 respictively,me, Haftar, & the other bastard (I can't, remember his name).
U.
Thursday September 24, 2020
Turkey, Russia, France, Italy and Egypt: just a few of the countries involved in the war in Libya. The North African country has been in political chaos for nearly a decade and it doesn't seem like it will end anytime soon. On Sunday, Germany is organizing a peace summit in Berlin, attended by other international powers, such as China and the US, in addition to the warring parties.
Since the death of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been in chaos and war. Two major power blocs rule: the internationally recognized government headed by Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj is based in the capital Tripoli and controls parts of the west. In the east, General Khalifa Haftar is in charge.
For several months now, Haftar has been on the march towards Tripoli. Turkey therefore decided to send troops to the country in early January to defend the city.
Attempts by Russia and Turkey, both embroiled in the conflict, to come to a ceasefire have so far failed.
But first, who is actually supporting whom in this conflict?
The government under Al Sarraj was established in 2015, under the watchful eye of the UN. The EU recognizes Al Sarraj as the leader of Libya, but France, for example, supports Haftar.
France sees Haftar as a strong leader they can work with, says researcher Jalel Harchaoui of the Clingendael Institute. According to him, France thinks Al Sarraj is "not a bad guy, but he is weak".
Currently, Haftar also enjoys support from Russia, but Harchaoui says this could change. As a result, Russia could play an important role on Sunday.
Both Al Sarraj and Haftar are assisted logistically or militarily by international allies.
Who supports Al Sarraj?
- Italy
- Turkey
- Qatar
Who supports Haftar?
- Egypt
- France
- Russia
- Jordan
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
Why is the interest of these countries in Libya so great?
Oil
Libya has every potential to be a major player in the international community. The country has the largest oil reserves in Africa, in which several parties have an interest. For example, Italy is a major importer of oil and natural gas from Libya and Turkey benefits from a partner on the Mediterranean Sea to help extract gas.
But not only the warring parties benefit from the situation in the country; as the peace summit guest list shows, other major players are also interested. For example, the US does not want to buy oil from Libya itself, according to Harchaoui, but it does want the country to be able to export its raw materials to maintain international oil trade.
National security
Not only raw materials play an important role in the conflict. Neighboring Egypt, for example, wants General Haftar to be able to achieve his goals, to maintain peace in his own country. According to Harchaoui, what happens in Tripoli doesn't really matter to Egypt.
However, Egypt borders the east of Libya and Haftar is currently maintaining peace in this region. "Under him there is currently a unit in the East. If Haftar fails, it could disintegrate."
Migration and Terrorism
On Saturday, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan warned in an op-ed by Politico of the increasing risk of terrorism in the region, as well as new migratory flows to Europe as a result of the further escalation of the war in Libya. However, according to Harchaoui, migration and terrorism no longer play a real role in the conflict.
"The flow of refugees via the Mediterranean route near Libya was the most intense from 2013 to 2017, with 10,000 to 15,000 refugees every month. Now there are only a few hundred," says Harchaoui.
Terrorism, according to Harchaoui, is also not a great danger. "ISIS is very small and weakened in the area and with the current war they have no reason to strike now."
However, terrorist organizations are thriving in the nearby Sahel region, which spans the entire width of Africa.
What can be expected from the summit on Sunday?
If it seems to be mainly about economic interests and less about migration, terrorism and national security, why are so many parties meeting on Sunday? "They must prevent loss of face," says Harchaoui. Everyone wants to play on stage now.
"Turkey has stolen the show by promising military support and now other parties, including those countries that do not provide military or logistical support, must show that they can also act."
However, there is no treaty yet, let alone a solution, the Clingendael expert thinks. "But, you have to do something."
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